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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-04-18T19:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-04-18T19:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12468/-1
CME Note: The arrival of this transient appears to be combined with a CH HSS arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-04-21T11:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-04-21T03:53Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2017 Apr 19 0852 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A partial halo CME was seen at 19:48 UT on April 18 (LASCO-C2), directed
towards the east with speeds around 900 km/s. It erupted from NOAA AR 2651
as this region rotated into view from the east limb. It was associated with
a C5.5 flare peaking at 20:10 UT on April 18. Due to the location of the
source region, only a shock could be expected to arrive at the Earth on
April 21.

The solar wind at the Earth is showing signs of compression preceding the
expected high speed stream, with KDourbes reaching only 3 but Kp going to
5. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions can be expected in the next 48 h.
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Lead Time: 50.47 hour(s)
Difference: 7.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2017-04-19T08:52Z

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